Election night has come and gone, and now the real game begins—how do the results impact your mortgage? While the Liberals secured another term, the financial markets didn’t flinch. Why? Because it was already baked into the forecast. Like a hockey team prepping for a power play, investors had already adjusted. But that doesn’t mean nothing’s changed. Let’s dig into how U.S. recession fears, Canadian fiscal policy, and unpredictable trade talks could shape your next mortgage decision.

The Day After: Why Markets Shrugged at the Election

Let’s be honest—markets didn’t care much about the Liberal win because it was expected. The focus has shifted to more pressing and unpredictable economic indicators. What’s moving mortgage rates now isn’t politics, but macroeconomics: U.S. slowdown, Canadian deficits, and a whole lot of trade drama.

What Could Push Mortgage Rates Down?

The U.S. economy looks like it just finished a brutal playoff series—tired, beat up, and struggling to recover. GDP numbers are sluggish, and job reports are weak. Add to that the possibility that Trump could walk back tariffs (in a rare pivot play), and inflation pressures may cool off.

Lower inflation = lower yields = lower fixed mortgage rates.

What Could Push Rates Up?

Here’s the twist: Mark Carney (incoming Liberal economic advisor) might need the NDP’s support to pass policy—meaning more social spending, more stimulus, and ultimately more government borrowing.

More debt = higher bond yields = higher fixed mortgage rates.

Why Rates Could Stay Flat

This one’s easy: Trade negotiations are a total gong show. Uncertainty in international trade keeps investors and central bankers cautious. The Bank of Canada doesn’t want to overcorrect or act prematurely, so they might just hold steady.

Current Rate Snapshot

• Fixed mortgage rates are holding after a recent ~0.35% jump

• The spring market has been slow—buyers are waiting on the sidelines

• Now that the election distraction is behind us, we could see renewed buyer momentum

What to Expect From the June 4 BoC Meeting

The market odds are:

• 45% chance of a 0.25% cut

• 55% chance they stay put

Translation? The BoC is in wait-and-see mode, trying to figure out which way the puck’s going to bounce.

What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers

If you’re:

• Buying – It’s a good time to lock in pre-approval before rates react to new data

• Renewing – You still have access to historically low rates, but that window might not stay open

• Refinancing – This could be your chance to restructure your mortgage while rates are stable

Let’s Build Your Mortgage Game Plan

Whether you’re in Norfolk County, Haldimand County, Brantford, or Oxford, I’ve got your back. Just like a coach helps a team read the play, I help you anticipate market moves and make smart mortgage decisions.

• Book a strategy call: Schedule here

• Sign up for my mortgage playbook and home report to stay informed and ahead of the game.

FAQs

1. Did the election results cause mortgage rates to change?
Not directly. The market had already priced in the Liberal win.

2. Will rates go up because of NDP influence?
Possibly. More spending could push bond yields higher, which may increase fixed rates.

3. Why are U.S. economic numbers so important to Canadian mortgages?
Our economies are deeply linked. A U.S. slowdown affects Canadian exports, rates, and investor confidence.

4. Is now a good time to get a variable mortgage?
If the BoC cuts rates again, variable mortgages could be a cost-saving move—but there’s still risk.

5. How long will fixed rates stay stable?
It depends on how GDP and trade talks unfold in the coming weeks.

🏒 Final Whistle: Your Mortgage Playbook Starts Now

Rates are in play, and timing is everything—don’t get caught offside. Whether you're buying your first home, refinancing to free up cash, or renewing for a better deal, now's the time to lock in your strategy.

📞 Book your free 30-minute mortgage game plan call today:
👉 Schedule here

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Sign up for my Mortgage Playbook & Home Report and stay in the loop.