How GTA Housing Trends Could Spark a Real Estate Boom in Southern Ontario

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market saw a remarkable resurgence in November, with home sales up 40.1% year-over-year, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Historically, housing trends in the GTA have acted as an early indicator of what’s to come for surrounding areas like Brant, Haldimand, Norfolk, and Oxford Counties. Based on past patterns, it’s likely that we’ll see similar shifts in these markets over the next 60 to 90 days.

What’s Happening in the GTA?

• Sales Growth: GTA REALTORS® reported 5,875 homes sold in November, a sharp increase compared to 4,194 sales in the same month last year.

• Rising Prices: The average selling price climbed 2.6% year-over-year to $1,106,050.

• Increased Listings: New listings were up 6.6%, offering more options for buyers.

• Improved Affordability: Lower interest rates have brought more buyers back into the market.

This recovery follows the Bank of Canada’s October rate cut, which lowered its key policy rate to 3.75%, improving affordability and giving hesitant buyers the confidence to re-enter the market.

How This Could Affect Southern Ontario

In the past, activity in the GTA has often been a precursor to market trends in Southern Ontario. As buyers priced out of Toronto’s market look for more affordable options, areas like Brant, Haldimand, Norfolk, and Oxford Counties become increasingly attractive.

1. Rising Demand

With GTA buyers moving into nearby regions, Southern Ontario often experiences a wave of increased demand for single-family homes, townhouses, and rural properties. Expect competition to grow, especially for entry-level homes and properties offering more space.

2. Gradual Price Increases

As demand rises, prices in Southern Ontario typically follow suit. While the market has remained stable in our area, history suggests we could see price growth within the next few months, particularly in early 2025.

3. Tighter Inventory

The GTA’s recovery is already tightening inventory there, and this trend could extend to Southern Ontario. Buyers in our area may face fewer options and more competition as the spring market approaches.

What’s Driving These Trends?

Lower Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts have made mortgages more affordable, luring buyers back into the market. Another expected rate cut in December will likely fuel this trend further, creating a ripple effect in Southern Ontario.

Shift in Buyer Confidence

Buyers who had been waiting for the right time to enter the market are now feeling more confident. As they move into action, surrounding regions are poised to feel the impact.

Historical Patterns

In previous market cycles, what happens in Toronto often influences Southern Ontario within a few months. If history repeats itself, we’re on the brink of increased activity and rising prices in our local market.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

• Act now to lock in lower mortgage rates before demand drives prices higher.

• Secure a customized budget to stay competitive in a busier market.

For Sellers:

• Prepare to list your home as demand builds in early 2025.

• Highlight your property’s value to attract motivated buyers.

The Southern Ontario Advantage

Our area offers buyers the chance to own homes at more affordable prices than the GTA while enjoying strong communities and more space. However, as GTA trends ripple into Brant, Haldimand, Norfolk, and Oxford Counties, competition is likely to intensify.

Let’s Plan Your Next Move

The GTA’s market recovery is an early signal of what could happen in Southern Ontario. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or refinance, I’m here to help you navigate these shifting conditions.

Contact me today for a free market report or a customized mortgage plan. Together, we’ll make sure you’re ahead of the curve.

Your Friend in the Mortgage Business,
Adam Walker
Walker Mortgages
226-567-4274 ext. 1
[email protected]